Ibrahim Mohammed Funsho
Kwara, like other thirty five states of the federation is polarised into 3 main Senatorial districts for political justice and convenience. The districts are Kwara Central comprising Ilorin East, South, West and Asa Local Government Areas; Kwara North entails Patigi, Edu, Baruten, Moro and Kaiama LGAs and Kwara South includes Offa, Oyun, Ekiti, Irepodun, Ifelodun, Oke-Ero, and Isin LGAs.
So, since the return of democracy to Nigeria in 1999, in all truthfulness, the northern part of state has not enjoyed power rotation like the rest and they consider political alienation on their own soil. In fact, this feeling of political entitlement has spiralled into stiff agitations.
Going down historical lane, since the creation of the state by General Yakubu Gowon on May 27, 1967 the Kwara North had only been at the helms of affairs of the state for just Twenty-two months (January 1992 to November 1993) during the aborted third republic with Senator Mohammed Shaaba Lafiagi being the state governor under the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The long-coveted entitlement to produce the next number one citizen of the state is hovering around their territory this time around with one of their own – Alhaji Shu’aibu Yaman as gubernatorial candidate People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – flying the KWARA NORTH AGENDA like a kite in the sky.
In 1999, as the fourth republic set in like a dawn, the late Rear Admiral Mohammed Lawal from Kwara Central became the first executive governor in the state courtesy of the late second republic foremost politician, Dr. Olusola Saraki through the All People’s Party, (APP). Barely four years down the line, Lawal fell out with his political benefactor over claim that he could no longer continue to caress god-fatherism.
Olusola Saraki, in a retaliatory show of his political might and to clip the wings of the incumbent governor Lawal whom he perceived as growing into an uncontrollable emperor brought his biological son, Bukola Saraki into the foray to drag power away from his prodigal son. That was how Saraki became governor under the People’s Democratic Party and the belligerent Lawal was ousted from office.
Bukola would later graduate from a political rookie into the lord and master of a long-standing political dynast in Nigeria within the shortest time – tentacles spread here and there.
Bukola Saraki, since setting his feet on the stage of mainstream politics in 2003, has enjoyed an almost unprecedented meteoric rise in profile and ranks.
The governorship of both Muhammed Lawal and Bukola Saraki had kept the baton of power in hands the of Kwara Central, while the former spent four years as Governor, the latter enjoyed two terms of eight years, keeping powers in the Alimi Emirate for twelve uninterrupted.
Bukola Saraki’s sidekick and Former Commissioner for Finance, Abdulfatai Ahmed was governor for eight years, enjoying the slot alloted to the Kwara South Zone.
This time around, Kwara North was already salivating for the exalted office of Governor, thinking the baton would be passed onto them with sheer ease under the Saraki dynasty but the matter took a new twist as things no long held at the centre as Saraki clout in the state was beginning to wither like rose flowers. At that time, he was actually fighting two battles simultaneously – exchanging a blunt spear with soldiers wielding cannons in far away Abuja. Back home, the O To Ge tsunami which would eventually sweep his political influence away like a whirlwind was another issue to deal with.
The advent of O to ge in 2019 really affected a lot of things in Saraki’s camp. The old order of Mi fun ẹ (I gave it to you) could no longer be sustained. The only concern on the front burner was how to survive the hurricane invited by O to ge mantra. Political permutations or calculations too changed. The then opposition APC knowing fully well that there was a need to play the Ilorin card to wrestle power from the age-long Saraki dynasty presented AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq – his emergence brewed serious internecine skirmishes, though a united front was eventually formed.
This development presumably coerced Saraki too, to offer the Kwara North zone as sacrificial lamb and thereby had to jettison the notion of nominating a candidate of Kwara North extraction. That was how Abdulrazaq Atunwa from Asa Local Government came into the picture in 2019 to make it an all-Ilorin battle – but unfortunately the Saraki dynasty could not escape the political hurricane that struck his camp like a thunderstorm – leaving the ruling PDP with no single elective post.
2023: A year to make or mar it
The 2023 general elections will unarguably come with a lot of political conundrums as Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq will be testing his popularity for the first time outside the O To Ge revolution that paved way for his triumph in 2019. More so, Saraki too, is currently mending several broken fences, moulding rocky blocks on concrete foundation, building fortresses against his chicken foot soldiers whose inordinate interests plummeted his dynasty into an abyss. He is infusing young blood into his camp and righting the many wrongs to do a comeback – like Manchester United – the king of comeback.
Without any doubt, the interest of the people of Kwara North will contribute a lot in shaping the outcome of gubernatorial elections in Kwara. But the enigmatic question is, will the whole of Kwara North queue behind the PDP candidate, Yaman to claim the long overdue entitlement of producing governor for the first time since 1999?
Moreover, this election will therefore serve as a litmus test to see if they can actually speak through one indivisible voice or be divided by sheer exhibition of whims and caprices. Speaking outside party affiliations, the speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Hon. Yakubu Danladi is of Baruba extraction (Baruten LG) while the lawmaker representing the zone in the Red Chamber, Senator Umar Suleiman Sadiq hails from Kaiama Local Government Area. Though, the Nupe folks boast the Office of Secretary to State Government (SSG) – a position most people consider as a far cry from the two aforementioned posts.
It would amount to foolery to think that both Hon. Danladi and Senator Umar Sadiq are not seeing themselves as potential governors at the end of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s tenure. Consequently, their possible gubernatorial ambitions may create a dent or maybe a crack in the actualisation of the Kwara North agenda.
Will the people of Moro, Kaiama and Baruten LGAs sacrifice the position of speakership and Senate and queue behind Yaman to actualise the Kwara North agenda come 2023 or see the agenda as Nupe agitation this time around? Only 2023 general elections would answer the enigmatic question.
Will Kwara South sit over the fence and watch the two-elephant wrestling?
This decision seems like a head-scratcher, the southern part of the Kwara in currently wallowing in the ocean of dilemma as to making a pick between the Yaman, the seeming Kwara North candidate and AbdulRazaq AbdulRahman who wants to fly the Kwara Central flag for eight running years – the Kwara South populace is like a man with two concubines, he must do his romance with every carefulness.
A two- term governorship of AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq would see the Kwara South enclave take over the baton of power after the North must have ruled for eight years – that is exactly twelve years from this time. if the incumbent administration, however, fails to return to power after the 2023 general elections, the Kwara South Zone will surely return to power just after eight years of Yaman.
The disadvantage of this is that the Kwara Central Zone, at the end of the eight years of Kwara North, will front agitation of returning to power in order to complete the aborted eight years which may keep the Kwara South zone in the queue for another sixteen years from now.
In addendum, what will the Kwara South leaders think of the candidacy of: Hakeem Lawal, Social Democratic Party; Prof. Abdulraheem Shuaib Oba, New Nigerian People’s Party; Yakubu Gobir, Young People’s Party who are all of Kwara Central extraction and if one of them is elected governor of the state may keep the zone on the line for possibly another 20 years after the tenure of Abdulfatah Ahmed? Would they prefer a change of face or a return to Egypt?
